Snapshot
number one: “The nation [Taiwan] had its warmest winter
solstice in 67 years yesterday, with the highest temperature rising above 30°C
[80°F].”
Snapshot
number two: “The statistics also showed that the nation
experienced its third-warmest winter solstice in recorded history, only beaten
by 31.5°C recorded in 1934 and 30.7°C in 1948.”
I call these two
sentences snapshots, because snapshots represent only an instant of time in a
comparatively small spot. When a
snapshot is selected for publication, it’s selected from among possibly
thousands of snapshots to illustrate a point that the writer is trying to make.
In the case of
literal snapshots, two photographers can attend the same lecture and take
pictures of the speaker and the crowd.
One photographer selects an audience photo showing many empty seats and
several disinterested people (the shot was taken during a less interesting part
of the speech.) The other photographer’s
photo shows many enthusiastic listeners (during a more interesting part of the
speech) packed into an area that has no empty seats.
It’s the same
speech, the same audience, and the same venue; but the two selected photos give
completely opposite impressions of how well attended the speech was and how
interested the listeners were.
Snapshots of
events can be very different from whole histories of the same events. Let’s look at how the two above-mentioned snapshots of temperatures may be seen in the light of whole systems thinking.
In the light of
whole systems thinking, these figures tell us that the world as a whole wasn’t especially
hot on December 22; the figures apply only to Taiwan: an area only a little
larger than Maryland. It also tells us
that it was hotter on that day 67 years ago (1948)—several decades before the
alleged “man-made global warming” became an issue (around 1978). You cannot reasonably infer "global warming" from a single hot day on a tiny portion of the globe.
The only other
time in recorded history that it was hotter on that date than it was this year
was in 1934. In the 37 years that global
warming has been a significant issue, Taiwan has never experienced a winter
solstice as hot as it was 30 years before the scare began.
It’s also worth
asking, “How do they arrive at the global temperature figures the use?” Of course they use thermometers, but where
are the thermometers located?
Here’s a map
showing the location of temperature measuring stations. Fully two thirds of the thermometers are
located in a fairly narrow band that includes only the middle two thirds of the
northern temperate zone. When more than 80% of the world is
underrepresented, how accurate can the system be?
It gets
worse. Take a look at “MeasuringTemperatures: How Temperatures are Measured,” by Dr. J. Floor Anthoni. Measuring global temperatures is far from an
exact science.
Bottom line: Statistics, when honestly
presented, are useful as a visual means of digesting facts. They’re not by any means a substitute for
facts. Check the facts.
