(If you'd rather watch the video than read the article, here it is, below.)
Reason #1: Opinion polls give the false impression that Democrats and Republicans
are evenly distributed within congressional districts. In fact, Democratic voters are more disproportionately
packed into Democratic-controlled congressional districts than Republican
voters are. A Democratic landslide in
one district often takes place at the expense of a narrow Democratic defeat in
a nearby district. This usually means
that an average of 5% of the Democratic votes are wasted on candidates who are
going to win anyway.
Thus, if the
Democrats have a 5% edge over the Republicans nationwide, in practical terms,
they’re running neck-and-neck.
Reason
#2:
Republicans have the momentum. A
month ago, in generic ballots, the Democrats had a 17% advantage over the
Republicans. A few days ago, the
Democratic advantage was more like 3% and closing.
Reason
#3: For midterm elections, opinion polls usually ask the wrong people. Candidates don’t win elections by having more
people in favor of them; they win by getting more supporters to the polls. Fewer than 40% of registered voters will vote
in the 2018 midterm elections, but most opinion poll samplings imply that 100%
of registered voters will vote. In fact,
60% of their answers are worthless and misleading. Roughly 20% of registered voters will decide
the election.
Reason
#4:
Who will vote and who won’t vote?
With fewer than 40% voting in the midterms, the winners will be the candidates
who do the best job of energizing their base.
That usually means that the winners will be the ones who do the best job
of framing the issues. The Republicans
are framing the election as a choice between continued progress on hot button
issues and a return to higher taxes, excessive regulation, and other issues
that are hot buttons for no more than 10% of the voters. President Trump’s voter
base is closer to 30%.
Reason
#5: Who is making the fewest serious mistakes? Both
Republicans and Democrats are making strategic mistakes, but the Democratic
mistakes are more serious. The biggest
Republican mistake was for Paul Ryan to continue as Speaker of the House
instead of stepping down and being replaced by Jim Jordan. Democrats have been making massive
mistakes. They include calls for protesters
to harass officials who are going about their business, threats to raise taxes
on average Americans, and threats to destroy American jobs by restoring
job-killing regulations.
Reason
#6:
The Kavanaugh Effect. The persecution of Brett Kavanaugh was intended to
energize the Democratic Party’s most radical base. For the most part, it has had the opposite
effect—and then some. Married women,
especially the mothers of teenage sons, are alarmed at the thought that their
sons may one day be presumed guilty by accusation. The Kavanaugh Effect has likely struck a
nerve among blacks and Hispanics as well.
Blacks and Hispanics are all too familiar with being presumed guilty
without evidence. The Kavanaugh witch
hunt has become such a disaster for the Democrats that MSNBC and other
Democratic-leaning networks lately have complained that other networks have
been unfair in their reporting of the process.
Reasons
#7: The Black Vote. Democrats have tried to make the 2018 midterm
elections a referendum on the presidency of Donald Trump, and they’ve gotten
their wish. Over the past two years,
black support for Republicans has quadrupled.
This has been largely because blacks have seen the disparity between the
crime and poverty in Democratic-controlled areas such as south Los Angeles and
Chicago; and the jobs and opportunities offered by President Trump and his
supporters.
Reason
#8: The Hispanic/Immigrant Vote. Not all Hispanics are
immigrants, and not all immigrants are Hispanic. Democrats, cloistered in their
bi-coastal bubble, have deceived themselves with the notion that Hispanics are
opposed to President Trump’s policy of securing the border. In point of fact, Hispanics—both native born
and immigrants—as well as immigrants who are not Hispanic—want their children
and grandchildren to find the same opportunities in America that immigrants now
find when they arrive. They don’t want
America to be turned into the kind of country that other people are
fleeing. Small wonder that Hispanic
support for President Trump has more than doubled since the 2016 election.
Reason
#9: The Numbers in the Senate Races. Of the thirty-five contested senate seats,
twenty-six are held by Democrats; nine are held by Republicans. To win control of the Senate, Democrats have
to win two of the nine Republican-held seats.
Republicans need only to hold onto the ones they have, and they have
twenty-six opportunities to increase their majority in the Senate. West Virginia has already flipped into the
Republican column. North Dakota and
Florida are on the way there. Others are likely.
Reason
#10: Increases is Republican Registrations, Requests for Absentee Ballots for
Registered Republicans, and Early Voting by Registered Republicans in Florida,
North Carolina, Wyoming, Arizona, Ohio, and Iowa. All these factors indicate a surge in GOP
voting.
The desperate
Democrats in Washington DC and in the Pravda press outlets such as the Clown
News Network and MSNBC have been pushing the notion that there’s no need for
Republicans to go to the polls because all is lost anyway. Democrat desperation is becoming more and
more evident with each passing week.
I forecast that
the Republican Party will gain around eight seats in the U.S. Senate, several
seats in the House, several more governorships, and control of several more
state legislatures. We’ll see
With strong Republican
majorities in both houses of Congress—real Republicans and not RINOs such as
the departing Jeff Flake and Paul Ryan—and with an Attorney General who will do
his job, President Trump can finish his task of draining the swamp, securing
America’s borders, strengthening America’s economy, securing peace and fair
trade with other countries, and making America great again.
